Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,309,550$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(8.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,354,523.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,354,523.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $78,795$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(4.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,514.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(81,514.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,018,221$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $68,918$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,983.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(76,983.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,823$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,671.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,671.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,833$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,282$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(590 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,187.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,187.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $237$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(14.7 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{253.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(253.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,544$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,882$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(614 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,607.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,607.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $385$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(45.4 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{385.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(385.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,913$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,460$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(807 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,611.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(64,611.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,353$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(111 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,678.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,678.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,283$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(52.6 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(9.98 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(214.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,527$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,754$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(210 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,842.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,842.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $74$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(8.24 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.5)}}\) (asimptote \(81.6\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $540$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $490$ on 2020-05-09
Best fit exponential: \(18.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{572.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(572.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-09
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $419$ on 2020-05-09
